2013

 

Zhu, J., and J. Shukla 2013: The role of air-sea coupling in seasonal prediction of Asian-Pacific summer monsoon rainfall. J. Climate, 26, 5689-5697, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00190.1.

 

2012

 

DelSole, T., and J. Shukla, 2012: Climate models produce skillful predictions of Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, doi:10.1029/2012GL051279.

 

Krishnamurthy, V., and J. Shukla, 2012: Predictability of the Indian monsoon in coupled general circulation models. Monsoon Monograph, Volume 2, Chapter 7, 266-306, India Meteorological Department, Editors: Ajit Tyagi et.al.

 

 

2011

 

DelSole, T., M. Tippett, and J. Shukla, 2011: A Significant Component of Unforced Multidecadal Variability in the Recent Acceleration of Global Warming.  Journal of Climate, 24, 909-926.

 

Lee, S.-S., J.-Yi Li, B. Wang, K.-J. Ha, F.-F. Jin, D. M. Straus, and J. Shukla, 2011: Interdecadal changes in the storm track activity over the North Pacific and North Atlantic. Climate Dyn. 39, 313-327, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1188-9.  

 

Pan, X., B. Huang, and J. Shukla, 2011: Sensitivity of the Tropical Pacific Seasonal Cycle and ENSO to Changes in Mean State Induced by a Surface Heat Flux Adjustment in CCSM3. Climate Dynamics, 37, 325-341, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0923-y.

 

2010

Brunet, G., M. Shapiro, B. Hoskins, M. Moncrieff, R. Dole, G.N. Kiladis, B. Kirtman, A. Lorenc, B. Mills, R. Morss, S. Polavarapu, D. Rogers, J. Schaake, and J. Shukla, 2010: Collaboration of the Weather and Climate Communities to Advance Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 91, 1397-1406.

DelSole, T., and J. Shukla, 2010: Model Fidelity Versus Skill in Seasonal Forecasting. Journal of Climate, 23, 4794-4806.

Feudale, L., and J. Shukla, 2010: Influence of sea surface temperature on the European heat wave of 2003 summer. Part I: an observational study. Climate Dynamics, Online First.

Feudale, L., and J. Shukla, 2010: Influence of sea surface temperature on the European heat wave of 2003 summer. Part II: a modeling study. Climate Dynamics, Online First.

Lee, J., B. Wang, I.-S. Kang, J. Shukla, A. Kumar, J.-S. Kug, J.K.E. Schemm, J.-J. Luo, T. Yamagata, X. Fu, O. Alves, B. Stern, T. Rosati, and C.-K. Park, 2010: How are seasonal prediction skills related to models’ performance on mean state and annual cycle? Climate Dynamics, 35, 267-283.

Pan, X., B. Huang, and J. Shukla, 2010: Sensitivity of the Tropical Pacific Seasonal Cycle and ENSO to Changes in Mean State Induced by a Surface Heat Flux Adjustment in CCSM3. Climate Dynamics, Online First.

Shapiro, M., J. Shukla, et al, 2010: An Earth-System Prediction Initiative for the 21st Century, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 91, 1377-1388.

Shukla, J., T.N. Palmer, R. Hagedorn, B. Hoskins, J. Kinter, J. Marotzke, M. Miller, and J. Slingo, 2010: Towards a New Generation of World Climate Research and Computing Facilities. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 91, 1407-1412.

 

2009

 

DelSole, T., and J. Shukla, 2009: Artificial Skill Due to Predictor Screening. Journal of Climate, 22, 331-345.

 

Shukla, J., R. Hagedorn, B. Hoskins, J. Kinter, J. Marotzke, M. Miller, T.N. Palmer, and J. Slingo, 2009: Revolution in climate Prediction is Both Necessary and Possible: A Declaration at the World Modelling Summit for Climate Prediction. Bulletin of the Amer. Meteo. Soc., 2 175-178.

 

World Modelling Summit for Climate Prediction, Reading, UK, 6-9 May 2008, Workshop Report (January 2009). WMO/TD-No. 1468.

 

2008

 

Huang, Bohua, and J. Shukla, 2008: Interannual variability of the South Indian Ocean in observations and a coupled model. Indian Journal of Marine Sciences 37, 13-34.

 

Jin, E. K., J. L. Kinter III, B. Wang, C.-K. Park, I.-S. Kang, B. Kirtman, J.-S. Kug, A. Kumar, J.-J. Luo, J. Schemm, J. Shukla and T. Yamagata, 2008: Current status of ENSO prediction skill in coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-008-0397-3.

 

Palmer, T.N., J. Shukla. “Advances in Modelling and Seamless Prediction.” WCRP Accomplishment Report 2007-2008. pp.7-13.

 

Shukla, J., Daniel Schaffer. “A New Climate for Change.TWAS Newsletter Volume 20, No. 1 (2008). pp 11 - 18.

 

Wang, B., J.-Y. Lee, J. Shukla, I.-S. Kang, C.-K Park, A. Kumar, B. Kirtman, B. Wang, E. K. Jin, and co-authors, 2008: Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: assessment of APCC/CliPAS 14-Model Ensemble Retrospective Seasonal Prediction (1980-2004). Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-008-0460-0.

 

2007

 

Feudale, L. and J. Shukla, “Role of Mediterranean SST in enhancing the European heat wave of summer 2003,” Geophysical Research Letters, 34:L03811, doi:10.1029/2006GL027991, (2007).

 

Huang, B. and J. Shukla, “Mechanisms for the Interannual Variability in the Tropical Indian Ocean. Part I: The Role of Remote Forcing from the Tropical Pacific,” Journal of Climate 20 (2007): 2917-2936.

 

Huang, B. and J. Shukla, “Mechanisms for the Interannual Variability in the Tropical Indian Ocean. Part II: Regional Processes,” Journal of Climate 20 (2007): 2937-2960.

 

Krishnamurthy, V. and J. Shukla, “Intraseasonal and Seasonally Persisting Patterns of Indian Monsoon Rainfall,Journal of Climate 20 (2007): 3-20.

 

Randall, D., R. Wood, S. Bony, R. Coleman, T. Fichefet, J. Fyfe, V. Kattsov, A. Pittman, J. Shukla, J. Srinivasan, R. Stouffer, A. Sumi, and K. Taylor, “Climate Models and Their Evaluation.” Chapter 8 of IPCC Report, "Climate Change 2007, The Physical Science Basis". (2007): 589-662.

 

Shukla, J. “Monsoon Mysteries.Science 318 (2007): 204 – 205.

 

Wang, B., J-Y Lee, I-S Kang, J. Shukla, S.N. Hameed, C-K Park. “ Coupled Predictability of Seasonal Tropical Precipitation.” CLIVAR Exchanges 12 (2007): 17-18.

 

Wang, B., J.-Y Lee, I-S Kang, J. Shukla, J-S Kug, A. Kumar, J. Schemm, J-J Luo, T. Yamagata, and C-K Park.  How accurately do coupled climate models predict the leading modes of Asian-Australian monsoon interannual variability?Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-007-0310-5 (2007).

 

2006

 

DelSole, T. and J. Shukla, “Correction Note on “Linear Prediction of Monsoon Rainfall for Indian Subdivisions.” COLA Technical Report 207 (2006): 8pp.

 

DelSole, T., and J. Shukla, “Linear Prediction of Monsoon Rainfall for Indian Subdivisions.COLA Technical Report 208 (2006): 19 pp.

 

DelSole, T., and J. Shukla, “Specification of Wintertime North American Surface Temperature.Journal of Climate 19 (2006): 2691-2716.

 

Huang, B., J. Shukla, “Interannual SST Variability in the Southern Subtropical and Extra-tropical Ocean.” COLA Technical Report 223 (2006): 20 pp.

 

Krishnamurthy, V., and J. Shukla, “Seasonal Persistence and Propagation of Intraseasonal Patterns over the Indian Monsoon Region.COLA Technical Report 206 (2006): 46 pp.

 

Shukla, J., T. DelSole, M. Fennessy, J. Kinter, and D. Paolino, “Climate Model Fidelity and Projections of Climate Change.Geophysical Research Letters 33 (2006): doi:10.1029-2005GL025579.

 

Shukla, J. and J. L. Kinter III, “Predictability of seasonal climate variations: A pedagogical review.  Predictability of Weather and Climate, T. Palmer and R. Hagedorn, eds.: Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, p. 306-341.

 

2005

 

DelSole, T., J. Shukla, “Specification of Wintertime North American Surface Temperature.COLA Technical Report 179 (2005): 70pp.

 

Huang, B., and J. Shukla, “Ocean-atmosphere interactions in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic Ocean.Journal of Climate 18 (2005): 1652-1672.

 

Kang, I.-S. and J. Shukla, “Dynamical seasonal prediction and predictability of monsoon.” The Asian Monsoon (B. Wang, ed.): Chichester, UK: Praxis Publishers Ltd., p. 585-612.

 

Krishnamurthy, V., and J. Shukla, “Intraseasonal and Seasonally Persisting Patterns of Indian Monsoon Rainfall. Cola Technical Report 188 (2005): 42 pp.

 

Manganello, J., and J. Shukla, “The Influence of Sea surface Temperature Anomalies on Low-Frequency Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation.COLA Technical Report 199 (2005): 65 pp.

 

Straus, D., and J. Shukla, “The Known, the Unknown and the Unknowable in the Predictability of Weather.COLA Technical Report 175 (2005): 22pp.

 

Wang, B., Q. Ding, X. Fu, I.-S. Kang, K. Jin, J. Shukla and F. Doblas-Reyes, “Fundamental challenge in simulation and prediction of summer monsoon rainfall.” Geophysical Research Letters 32 (2005): L15711, doi: 10.1029/2005GL022734.

 

2004

 

Huang, Bohua, Paul Schopf, J. Shukla. “Intrinsic Ocean-Atmosphere Variability of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean.” Journal of Climate 17 (2004): 2058-2077

 

2003

 

Huang, B., P. Schopf, and J. Shukla, “Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Variability in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean.COLA Technical Report 135 (2003): 57 pp.
 
Straus, D., D. Paolino, J. Shukla, S. Schubert, M. Suarez, P. Pegion, and A. Kumar, “Predictability of the Seasonal Mean Atmospheric Circulation During Autumn, Winter and Spring.Journal of Climate 16 (2003): 3629-3649.

 

2002

 

Altshuler, Eric, M. Fennessy, J. Shukla, H. Juang, E. Rogers, K. Mitchell, and M. Kanamitsu, “Seasonal simulations over North America with a GCM and three regional models.COLA Technical Report March, 2002, 60pp.

 

Del Sole, T., and J. Shukla, 2002: Linear prediction of Indian monsoon rainfall. Journal of Climate, 15,

            3645-3658.

 

Huang, B., P. Schopf and J. Shukla, 2002: Coupled ocean-atmosphere variability in the tropical Atlantic. CLIVAR Exchanges, 7 (No. 3/4) 24-27.

 

Kang, I.-S., K. Jin, K.-M. Lau, J. Shukla, V. Krishnamurthy, and coauthors, 2002a: Intercomparison of atmospheric GCM simulated anomalies associated with the 1997-98 El NiĖo event. Journal of Climate, 15, 2791-2805.

 

Kang, I.-S., K. Jin, B. Wang, K.-M. Lau, J. Shukla, V. Krishnamurthy, and coauthors, 2002b: Intercomparison of the climatological variations of Asian summer monsoon precipitation simulated by 10 GCMs. Climate Dynamics, 19, 383-395.

 

Kirtman, B. P., and J. Shukla, 2002: Interactive coupled ensemble: A new coupling strategy for CGCMs.     Geophysical. Research Letters, 29, 1367, doi:10.1029/2002GLO14834.

 

Straus, D., D. Paolino, J. Shukla, S. Shubert, M. Suarex, A. Kumar, and P. Pegion, “Predictability of the Seasonal Mean Atmospheric Circulation During Autumn, Winter, and Spring.COLA Technical Report (2002): 51pp.

 

Straus, D. M., and  J. Shukla, 2002: “Does ENSO force the PNA?Journal of Climate, 15, 2340 - 2358.

 

2001

 

Blackmon, M., …, J. Shukla, …, E. K. Schneider, and coauthors, 2001: The Community Climate System Model. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 82, 2357-2376.

 

Kirtman, B. P., J. Shukla, M. Balmaseda, N. Graham, C. Penland, Y. Xue, S. Zebiak, 2001c: Current status of ENSO forecast skill. World Climate Research Programme (WRCP) Report, 23/01, 26pp.

 

            Krishnamurthy, V., and J. Shukla, 2001: Observed and model simulated interannual variability of the Indian monsoon. Mausam, 52, 133-150.

 

            Shukla, J. (ed.), 2001: Dynamics of Large-Scale Atmospheric and Oceanic Processes: Selected Papers of Jule Gregory Charney. A. Deepak Publication (Hampton, VA, 611 pp).

 

2000

Fennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, 2000:Seasonal                                      

Fennessy, M., J. Shukla, “Seasonal prediction over North America with a regional model nested in a global model.Journal of Climate 13 (2000): 2605-2627.

 

Kirtman, B. P., and J. Shukla, 2000: Influence of the Indian Summer Monsoon on ENSO.  Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 126, 213-239.

 

Krishnamurthy, V. and J. Shukla, 2000: Intraseasonal and interannual variability of rainfall over India.  Journal of Climate, 13, 4366-4377.

                                                                                               

Reale, O. and J. Shukla, 2000: Modeling the effects of vegetation on Mediterranean climate during the Roman classical period.  Part II: Model simulation. Global and Planetary Change, 25, 185-214.

 

Shukla, J., D. A. Paolino, D. M. Straus, D. DeWitt, M. Fennessy, J. L. Kinter, L. Marx and R. Mo, 2000: Dynamical Seasonal Predictions with the COLA Atmospheric Model. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,126, 2265-2291.

 

Shukla, J., J. Anderson, D. Baumhefner, C. Brankovic, Y. Chang, E. Kalnay, L. Marx, T. Palmer, D. A. Paolino, J. Ploshay, S. Schubert, D. M. Straus, M. Suarez, J. Tribbia, 2000: Dynamical Seasonal Prediction, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 81, 2593-2606.

 

Straus, D. M. and J. Shukla, 2000: Distinguishing between the SST-forced variability and internal variability in mid-latitudes: Analysis of observations and GCM simulations. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,126, 2323-2350.

 

1999

 

Bamzai, A. S., and J. Shukla, 1999: Relation between Eurasian Snow Cover, Snow Depth, and the Indian Summer Monsoon: An Observational Study. Journal of Climate, 12, 3117-3132.

 

Fennessy, M. J., and J. Shukla, 1999: Impact of Initial Soil Wetness on Seasonal Atmospheric Prediction. Journal of Climate, 12, 3167-3180.

 

            Schneider, E. K., B. Huang, D. G. DeWitt, J. L. Kinter, B. P. Kirtman, and J. Shukla, 1999: Ocean Data Assimilation Initialization and Prediction of ENSO with a Coupled GCM. Monthly Weather Review, 127, 1187-1207.

 

Shukla, J., J. L. Kinter, E. K. Schneider, D. M. Straus, 1999: Chapter 3: Modelling of the Climate System. Climate Change: an integrated perspective.  Kluwer Academic Publishers, Editors: P. Mertens and J. Rotmans, 51-104.

                       

1998

 

Fennessy, M., and J. Shukla, “Seasonal Prediction Experiments with a Regional Model Nested in a Global Model.COLA Technical Report 63 (1998): 52 pp.

 

Shukla, J., 1998: Predictability in the Midst of Chaos: A Scientific Basis for Climate Forecasting.     Science, 282, 728-731.            

 

Webster, P.J., V.O. Magana, T.N. Palmer, J. Shukla, R.A. Tomas, M. Yanai, and T. Yasunari, 1998: The monsoon: Processes, predictability, and prediction. Journal of Geophysical Research, 103, 14451-14510.

 

Xue, Y. and J. Shukla, “Model Simulation of the Influence of Global SST Anomalies on the Sahel Rainfall.”  Monthly Weather Review 126 (1998): 2782-2792.            

 

1997

 

Huang, B., and J. Shukla, 1997a: An examination of AGCM simulated surface wind stress and low level winds over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Monthly Weather Review, 125, 985-998.

 

Huang, B., and J. Shukla, 1997b: Characteristics of interannual and decadal variability in a general circulation model of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Journal of Physical Oceanography., 27, 1693-1712.

 

Kinter, J., D. DeWitt, P. Dirmeyer, M. Fennessy, B. Kirtman, L. Marx, E. Schneider, J. Shukla and D. Straus, “The COLA Atmosphere-Biosphere General Circulation Model, Volume I: Formulation.COLA Technical Report 51 (1997) 46 pp.

 

Kirtman, B.P., J. Shukla, B. Huang, Z. Zhu and E.K. Schneider, 1997: Multiseasonal predictions with a coupled tropical ocean-global atmosphere system. Monthly Weather Review, 125, 789-808.

 

Schneider, E.K., J. Carton, B. Giese, B. Huang, B.P. Kirtman, J. Shukla, and Z. Zhu, “Annual cycle and ENSO in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model” Monthly Weather Review 125 (1997): 680-702.

 

Shukla, J., D. Paolino, B. Kirtman, D. DeWitt, P. Dirmeyer, B. Doty, M. Fennessy, B. Huang, J. Kinter, L. Marx, E. Schneider, D. Straus and Z. Zhu, “A Forecast of Precipitation and Surface Air Temperature in North America for Winter (JFM).COLA Technical Report 50 (1997): 14 pp.

 

Straus, D.M., and J. Shukla, 1997: Variations of midlatitude transient dynamics associated with ENSO. Journal of Atmospheric Science, 54, 777-790.

 

1996

 

Dirmeyer, P.A., and J. Shukla, 1996: The effect on regional and global climate of expansion of the world’s deserts. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 122, 530, 451-482.

 

Huang, B. and J. Shukla, 1996: A comparison of two surface wind analyses over the tropical Atlantic during 1980-87. Journal of Climate, 9, 906-927.

 

Nobre. P. and J. Shukla, 1996: Variations of sea surface temperature, wind stress and rainfall over the tropical Atlantic and South America. Journal of Climate, 9, 2464-2479.

 

Shukla, J., and B. Kirtman, “Predictability and Error Growth in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model.COLA Technical Report 24 (1996): 11pp.

 

Xue, Y. and J. Shukla, 1996: The influence of land surface properties on Sahel climate.  PART II: Afforestation. Journal of Climate, 9, 3260-3275.

 

1995

 

Huang, B., J.A. Carton and J. Shukla, 1995: A numerical simulation of the variability in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, 1980-88. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 25, 835-854.

 

Kirtman, B., J Shukla, B. Huang, Z. Zhu, and E. Schneider “Multiseasonal Predictions with a Coupled Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere System.COLA Technical Report 15 (1995): 59 pp.

 

Paolino, D. A., Q. Yang, B. Doty, J. Kinter, J. Shukla, D. Straus, 1995: A pilot reanalysis project at COLA.  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 76, 697-710.

 

Schneider, E.K., B. Huang, and J. Shukla, 1995: Ocean Wave Dynamics of El NiĖo. Journal of Climate, 8, 2415-2439.

 

Shukla, J. 1995: On the initiation and persistence of the Sahel drought. Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 44-48.

 

Vernekar, A., J. Zhou and J. Shukla, 1995: The effect of Eurasian snow cover on Indian monsoon. Journal of Climate, 8, 248-266.

 

1994

 

Dirmeyer, P. A. and J. Shukla, 1994:  Albedo as a modulator of climate response to tropical deforestation. Journal of Geophysical. Research, 99, 923-935.

 

Dirmeyer, P., and J. Shukla “The Effect on Climate of Doubling Deserts.COLA Technical Report 3 (1994): 61 pp.

 

Dirmeyer, P., and J. Shukla “The Response of the General Circulation to Deforestation in the Tropics.” Proc. 5th Symposium on Global Change (1994): 131-134.

 

Fennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, 1994:  GCM Simulations of active and break monsoon periods.  Proc. MONEG International Conference on Monsoon Variability and Prediction, Trieste, Italy, 9-13 May, 1994.

 

Fennessy, M. J., J. L. Kinter III, B. Kirtman, L. Marx., S. Nigam, E. Schneider, J. Shukla., D. Straus. A. Vernekar, Y. Xue, and J. Zhou, 1994: The simulated Asian monsoon: A GCM sensitivity study.  J. Climate, 7, 33-43.

 

Fennessy, M., J Kinter, L. Marx, E. Schneider, P.J. Sellers, and J. Shukla, “ GCM Simulations of the Life Cycles of the 1988 US Drought and Heat wave.COLA Technical Report 6 (1994): 68 pp.

 

Shukla, J., M. Fennessy, “Simulation and predictability of monsoons.” Proc. MONEG International Conference on Monsoon Variability and Prediction, Trieste, Italy, 9-13 May, 1994, pp 567-575.

 

Yang, R., M. J. Fennessy and J. Shukla, 1994:  The influence of initial soil wetness on medium range surface weather forecasts, Monthly Weather Review, 122, 471-485.

 

Yang, R., J. Shukla and P. J. Sellers, 1994:  The influence of changes in vegetation type on the surface energy budget.  Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 11, 139-161.

 

1993

 

Dirmeyer, P. A. and J. Shukla, 1993:  Observational and Modeling Studies of the Influence of Soil Moisture Anomalies on Atmospheric Circulation (Review). Prediction of Interannual Climate Variations.  NATO ASI Series I: Global Environmental Change, Vol. 6, Editor: J. Shukla, 1-24.

 

Fennessy, M.J., J.L. Kinter III, L. Marx, P. Sellers and J. Shukla, 1993:  Influence of initial soil wetness on GCM simulation of the 1988 U.S. drought and heat wave. Conference on Hydroclimatology (Anaheim, CA, 17-22 January 1993).

 

Goswami, B. N. and J. Shukla, 1993:  Aperiodic variability in the Cane-Zebick model: A diagnostic study. Journal of Climate, 5, 628-638.

 

Robinson, A.R., C.J. Garrett, P. Malanotte-Rizzoli, S. Manage, S.G. Philander, N. Pinardi, W. Roether, F.A. Schott and J. Shukla, 1993: Mediterranean and Global Ocean and Climate Dynamics. EOS Transactions, American Geophysical Union, Vol. 74, No. 44, 506-507.

           

Shukla, J. 1993: Predictability of short-term climate variations. Prediction of Interannual Climate Variations.  NATO ASI Series I:  Global Environmental Change, Vol. 6, Editor:  J. Shukla, 217-232.     

 

Vernekar, A., J. Zhou and J. Shukla, 1993:  The effect of Eurasian spring snow cover on Indian summer monsoon. WCRP-80, WMO/TD-No. 546, 69-73.

 

Xue, Y. and J. Shukla, 1993: The influence of land surface properties on Sahel climate. Part I:  Desertification.  Journal of Climate, 6, 2232-2245.

 

1992

 

Fennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, 1992:  Influence of Global SST on GCM simulations of the Northern Hemisphere Monsoon Circulations of 1987 and 1988. Report of the Monsoon Numerical Experimentation Group Workshop on Interannual and Intraseasonal Variability of Monsoons (October 21‑24, 1991), WMO, WCRP‑68, WMO/TD‑No. 470, 2.37‑2.46.

 

Fennessy, M. J., L. Marx, J. L. Kinter III and J. Shukla, 1992:  The influence of global SST on the 1988 U.S. Drought:  A comparison with two general circulation models.  Proc. Workshop on 1988 U.S. Drought, Department of Meteorology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD  20742.

 

Shukla, J. and M. J. Fennessy, 1992:  Idealized numerical experiments to diagnose the simulated Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall.  Report of the Monsoon Numerical Experimentation Group Workshop on Interannual and Intraseasonal Variability of Monsoons (October 21‑24, 1991), WMO, WCRP‑68, WMO/TD‑No. 470, 2.153‑2.157.

 

 

 

 

1991

 

Carton, J. A. and J. Shukla, “Predictability of the tropical Atlantic Ocean.  Journal of Marine Systems

1 (1991): 299‑313.

 

Fennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, “Comparison of the impact of the 1982/83 and 1986/88 Pacific SST anomalies on time-mean prediction of atmospheric circulation and rainfall.Journal of Climate 4 (1991): 407‑423.

 

Goswami, B. N. and J. Shukla, 1991:  Predictability and variability of a coupled ocean‑atmosphere model. Journal of Marine Systems, 1, 217‑228.

 

Goswami, B. N. and J. Shukla, 1991:  Predictability of a coupled ocean‑atmosphere model.  Journal of Climate, 3, 2‑22.

 

Kinter III, J. L., J. Shukla, L. Marx and B. Doty, 1991:  Relationship between GCM forecast errors and seasonal variability:  Tropical heating and extratropical circulation. IUGG XX General Assembly, IAMAP Symposium on Large-Scale Atmospheric Flow and Variability (Vienna, Austria, 19-23 August, 1991).  IAMAP, 1991.

 

Nobre, C. A., P. J. Sellers and J. Shukla, 1991:  Amazonian deforestation and regional climate change.  Journal of Climate, 4, 957‑988.

 

Shukla, J. “Short term climate variability and predictions.Climate Change: Science, Impacts and Policy. Eds. J. Jager and H.L. Ferguson. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1991. 203-210.

 

Shukla, J., M. J. Fennessy, J. L. Kinter III, L. Marx and E. K, Schneider, 1991: Seasonal predictions with the COLA GCM. Proc. ICTP/WMO Technical Conference on Long-Range Weather Forecasting Research, 249.

 

Xue, Y., P. J. Sellers, J. Kinter and J. Shukla, 1991:  A simplified model for global climate studies. Journal of Climate, 4, 345‑364.

 

Xue, Y., and J. Shukla. “A Study of the Mechanism and Impact of Biosphere Feedback on the African Climate.” Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology and the Special Session on Hydrometeorology. September 10-13, 1991.

                                                                                   

1990

 

Kinter, J. L. and J. Shukla, 1990: The global hydrologic and energy cycles: Suggestions for studies in the pre-GEWEX period. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 71, 181-189.

 

Shukla, J., C. A. Nobre and P. J. Sellers, 1990:  Amazonia deforestation and climate change. Science, 247, 1322‑1325.

                                               

1989

 

Kinter, J. L. and J. Shukla, 1989:  Reanalysis for TOGA (Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 70, 1422‑1427.

 

Mooley, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1989:  Index of activity of the monsoon trough over India. MAUSAM, 40, 247‑258.

 

Mooley, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1989:  Main features of the westward‑moving summer monsoon low pressure systems which form over the Indian regions during the summer monsoon season and their relation to the monsoon rainfall.  MAUSAM, 40, 137‑152.

 

Sato, N., P. J. Sellers, D. A. Randall, E. K. Schneider, J. Shukla, J. L. Kinter III, Y.‑T. Hou and E. Albertazzi, 1989:  Effects of implementing the simple biosphere model (SiB) in a general circulation model. Journal of Atmospheric Science, 46, 2757‑2782.

 

Shukla, J., 1989:  Tropical forecasting: Predictability perspective.  Australian Meteorological Magazine, 37, 141‑153.

 

1988

 

Bengtsson, L. and J. Shukla, 1988: Integration of space and in situ observation to study climate change. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 69, 1130-1143.

 

Charney, J. G., E. Kalnay, E. K. Schneider and J. Shukla, 1988: A study of the dynamics of the ITCZ in a symmetric atmosphere-ocean model. (Joint IUTAM/IUGG Symposium on Monsoon Dynamics (5-9 December 1977), New Delhi, India, NASA Technical Memo. 86220, 20pp.

                                               

Fennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, 1988:  Impact of the 1982‑3 and 1986‑7 Pacific SST anomalies on time mean prediction with the GLAS GCM.  Proceedings of a Workshop on Modelling the Sensitivity and Variations of the OceanAtmosphere System (11‑13 May, 1988), ECMWF, England, World Climate Research Program Report:  WCRP‑15.  (WMO/TD ‑ No. 254), Geneva, pp. 26‑44.

 

Fennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, 1988:  Numerical simulation of the atmospheric response to the time‑varying El NiĖo SST anomalies during May 1982 through October 1983.  Journal of Climate, 1, 195‑211.

 

Kinter, J. L., J. Shukla, L. Marx, E. Schneider, 1988:  A simulation of the winter and summer circulation with the NMC global spectral model.  Journal of Atmospheric Science, 45, 2486‑2522.

 

Mooley, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1988:  Characteristics of the westward‑moving summer monsoon low pressure systems over the Indian region and their relationship with the monsoon rainfall.  Department of Meteorology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA.

 

Shukla, J., 1988:  Predictability of monthly mean circulation and rainfall: Part I: Classical dynamical predictability experiments; and Part II: Influences of 1982‑83 and 1986‑87 El NiĖo SST anomalies.  Proceedings of the Workshop on Predictability in the Medium and Extended Range (16‑18 May 1988), ECMWF, England, 251‑261.

 

Shukla, J., 1988:  Variability of rainfall over tropical oceans:  Scientific basis and justification for TRMM. Tropical Rainfall Measurements.  Editors:  J. S. Theon and N. Fugono, A. Deepak Publishing, pp. 75‑79. 

 

Shukla, J. and M. Fennessy, 1988:  Prediction of time-mean atmospheric circulation and rainfall:  Influence of Pacific SST anomaly. Journal of Atmospheric Science, 45, 9‑28.

 

Shukla, J., D. A. Mooley and D. A. Paolino, 1988:  Long range forecasting of summer monsoon rainfall over India. Persistent meteo‑oceanographic anomalies and teleconnections, Pontificale academiae scientiarum scripta varia, 69.  Editors:  C. Chagas and G. Puppi, Pontificia Academia Scientiarum, pp. 147‑178.

 

Straus, D. M. and J. Shukla, 1988: A comparison of a GCM simulation of the seasonal cycle of the atmosphere to observations.  Part I: Mean fields and the annual harmonic.  AtmosphereOcean, 26, 541‑574.

 

Straus, D. M. and J. Shukla, 1988: A comparison of a GCM simulation of the seasonal cycle of the atmosphere to observations.  Part II: Stationary waves and transient fluctuations.  AtmosphereOcean, 26, 575‑607.

 

Straus, D. M. and J. Shukla, 1988:  The seasonal cycle of energetics from the GLAS/UMD Climate GCM. NASA Technical Memo. 100714.

 

Sud, Y. C., J. Shukla, and Y. Mintz, “Influence of land‑surface roughness on atmospheric circulation and rainfall: A sensitivity study with GCM.”  Journal of Applied Meteorology 27 (1988): 1036‑1054.

 

1987

 

Mooley, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1987:  Evaluation of April 500 mb ridge and Darwin pressure trend as predictors for Indian monsoon rainfall. Proceedings of the Fifth Conference on Applied Meteorology (10‑12 March 1987), Baltimore, MD, published by AMS, 46‑48.

 

Mooley, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1987:  Variability and forecasting of the summer monsoon rainfall over India.  Monsoon Meteorology.  Editors: C. P. Chang and T. N. Krishnamurti.  Oxford University Press, pp. 26‑59.

 

Shukla, J, 1987:  General circulation modeling and the tropics.  Geophysiology of Amazonia: Vegetation and Climate Interactions.  Editor:  R. E. Dickinson, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., pp. 409‑461.

 

Shukla, J., 1987:  Interannual variability of monsoons.  Monsoons.  Editors:  Jay Fein and Pamela L. Stephens, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., pp. 399‑464.

 

Shukla, J., 1987:  Long range forecasting of Indian monsoons. Science Age, November, 21‑23.

 

Shukla, J, 1987:  Long-range forecasting of monsoons.  Monsoons.  Editors:  Jay S. Fein and Pamela L. Stephens, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., pp. 523‑547.

 

Shukla, J, 1987:  Numerical simulation of atmospheric response to observed SST anomalies and oceanic response to observed wind stress:  Intercomparison of results from various GCMs.  Proceedings of the Workshop on Predictability in the Medium and Extended Range (17‑19 March 1986), ECMWF, England, pp. 205‑220.

 

Shukla, J. and D. A. Mooley, “Empirical prediction of the summer monsoon rainfall over India.Monthly Weather Review 115 (1987): 695‑703.

 

1986

 

Shukla, J., 1986:  SST anomalies and blocking. Advances in Geophysics, Vol. 29. Editor: R. Benzi, Academic Press, Inc., pp. 443‑452.

 

 

1985

 

Fennessy, M. J., L. Marx and J. Shukla, “General circulation model sensitivity to 1982‑83 equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies.” Monthly Weather Review 113 (1985): 858‑864.

 

Shukla, J., 1985: Air-Sea-Land Interactions: Global and Regional Habitability. Origins of Life, 15, Rydell Publishing Co., Holland, 353-363.

 

Shukla, J., 1985:  Predictability.  Issues in atmospheric and oceanic modeling, Part II.  Weather Dynamics.  Advances in Geophysics, Vol. 28B.  Editor: S. Manabe, Academic Press, Inc., pp. 87‑122.

 

Shukla, J. and E. M. Rasmusson, 1985:  Variability of the tropical circulation.  Proceedings of the TOGA Conference (Paris, September 1984), WCRP Publication Series No. 4 (WMO/TD ‑ No. 65), 1985, pp. II.24‑II.39.  World Meteorological Organization, Geneva.

 

1984

 

Goswami, B. N. and J. Shukla, 1984:  Quasi‑periodic oscillations in a symmetric general circulation model.  Journal of Atmospheric Science, 41, 20‑37.

 

Goswami, B. N., J. Shukla, E. K. Schneider and Y. C. Sud, 1984:  Study of the dynamics on the intertropical convergence zone with a symmetric version of the GLAS climate model.  Journal of Atmospheric Science, 41, 5‑19.

 

Gutzler, D. S. and J. Shukla, 1984:  Analogs in the wintertime 500 mb height field. Journal of Atmospheric Science, 41, 177‑189.

 

Shukla, J., 1984:  Predictability of a large atmospheric model. Predictability and Turbulence, American Institute of Physics.  Editors:  G. Holloway and B. J. West, pp. 449‑456.

 

Shukla, J., 1984:  Predictability of time averages, Part II.  The influence of the boundary forcings.  Problems and Prospects in Long and Medium Range Weather Forecasting.  Editors:  D. N. Burridge and E. Kallen, Springer‑Verlag, pp. 155‑206.

 

1983

 

Chen, T. C. and J. Shukla, “Diagnostics analysis and spectral energetics of a blocking event in GLAS climate model simulation.” Monthly Weather Review 111 (1983): 3‑23.

 

Estoque, M. A., J. C. Jiing and J. Shukla, 1983:  African wave disturbances in a General Circulation Model.  Tellus, 35A, 287‑295.

 

Mo, K. C. and J. Shukla, 1983:  Persistent anomalies of the Southern Hemisphere circulation.  NASA Technical Memo. 84983, pp. 139‑141.

 

Shukla, J., 1983:  Ability and limitations of general circulation models to simulate climate and climate variability. Proceedings of the Study Conference on the Physical Basis for Climate Prediction of Seasonal, Annual and Decadal Time Scales (Sept. 13‑17, 1982), Leningrad, USSR.  WCP47, pp. 97‑127.

 

Shukla, J., “Comments on ‘Natural variability and predictability’." Monthly Weather Review 111 (1983): 581‑585.

 

Shukla, J., 1983:  On physical basis and feasibility of monthly and seasonal prediction with a large GCM. Proceedings of WMO‑CAS/JAS Expert Study Conference on Long Range Forecasting (1‑4 December, 1982), Princeton, NJ, WMO, LRF Publication Series No. 1., pp. 142‑153.

 

Shukla, J. and D. S. Gutzler, 1983:  Interannual variability and predictability of 500 mb geopotential heights over the Northern Hemisphere.  Monthly Weather Review, 111, 1273‑1279.

 

Shukla, J. and K. C. Mo, 1983:  Seasonal and geographical variation of blocking. Monthly Weather Review, 111, 388‑402.

 

Shukla, J. and D. A. Paolino, 1983:  The Southern Oscillation and long range forecasting of the summer monsoon rainfall over India. Monthly Weather Review, 111, 1830‑1837.

 

Shukla, J. and J. M. Wallace, 1983:  Numerical simulation of the atmospheric response to equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies.  Journal of Atmospheric Science, 40, 1613‑1630.

 

1982

 

Shukla, J., 1982:  Predictability of time averages:  The influence of the boundary forcing.  NASA Technical Memo. 85092, (NTIS #8411624), pp. 63.

 

Shukla, J., 1982:  Predictability of the tropical atmosphere. Tropical OceanAtmosphere Newsletter, November, 7‑9.

 

Shukla, J. and W. E. Baker, 1982:  Analysis and prediction of the monsoon flow during the summer  MONEX.  Proceedings of  the International Conference on Scientific Results of the Monsoon Experiment (October, 1981), Indonesia, (published by ICSU/WMO, Geneva) 4.3‑4.11.

 

Shukla, J. and Y. Mintz, “Influence of land‑surface evapotranspiration on the earth's climate.Science 215 (1982): 1498‑1501.

 

1981

 

Charney, J. G. and J. Shukla, 1981:  Predictability of monsoons.  Monsoon Dynamics, Editors: Sir James Lighthill and R. P. Pearce, Cambridge University Press, pp. 99‑ 109.

 

Charney, J. G., J. Shukla and K. C. Mo, 1981:  Comparison of a barotropic blocking theory with observations. Journal of Atmospheric Science, 38, 762‑779.

 

Chen, T. C., H. G. Marshall and J. Shukla, “Spectral Analysis and diagnosis of nonlinear interactions of large-scale moving waves at 200 mb in the GLAS general circulation model.Monthly Weather Review 109 (1981): 959‑974.

 

Godbole, R. V. and J. Shukla, 1981:  Global analysis of January and July sea level pressure. NASA Technical Memo. 82097.

 

Kalnay, E., W. E. Baker and J. Shukla, 1981: Numerical prediction of the large scale tropical flow.  Proceedings of the Symposium on Meteorological Aspects of Tropical Droughts (7‑11 December, 1981), New Delhi, India, (Published by WMO).

 

Moura, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1981:  On the dynamics of droughts in northeast Brazil: Observations, theory and numerical experiments with a general circulation model.  Journal of Atmospheric Science, 38, 2653‑2675.

 

Paolino, D. and J. Shukla, 1981:  Interannual variability of monsoon rainfall and Northern Hemispheric surface pressure.  Proceedings of the Symposium on Meteorological Aspects of Tropical Droughts (7‑11 December, 1981), New Delhi, India.  Edited by R. P. Pearce.  World Meteorological Organization, pp. 41‑48

 

Saha, K. R., F. Sanders and J. Shukla, 1981: Westward propagating predecessors of monsoon depressions. Monthly Weather Review, 109, 330‑343.

 

Shukla, J., 1981:  Dynamical predictability of monthly means.  Journal of Atmospheric Science, 38, 2547‑2572.

 

Shukla, J., 1981:  Physical basis for prediction of tropical droughts. Proceedings of the Symposium on Meteorological Aspects of Tropical Droughts (7‑11 December, 1981), New Delhi, India.  Edited by R. P. Pearce, World Meteorological Organization, pp. 27‑40.

 

Shukla, J., 1981: Predictability of the tropical atmosphere. NASA Technical Memo. 83829, pp 51.

 

Shukla, J., 1981:  Structure and dynamics of monsoon depressions:  The MONEX depression (July 1979).  (Invited paper)  Proceedings of the FGGE/MONEX Meeting (January, 1981), Tallahassee, Florida, p. 11.3‑11.7 (published by ICSU/WMO, Geneva).  NASA Technical Memo. 83907, pp. 217‑222.

 

Shukla, J. and Y. C. Sud, 1981: Effect of cloud‑radiation feedback on the climate of a general circulation model.  Journal of Atmospheric Science, 38, 2337‑2353.

 

Shukla, J., R. Atlas and W. E. Baker, 1981:  Numerical prediction of the monsoon depression of 5‑7 July, 1979.  Proceedings of the FGGE/MONEX Meeting (January, 1981), Tallahassee, Florida, p. 11.3‑11.7 (published by ICSU/WMO, Geneva).  NASA Technical Memo. 83907, pp. 223‑230.

 

Shukla, J., K. C. Mo and M. Eaton, 1981: Climatology of blocking in the GLAS climate model. NASA Technical Memo. 83907, pp. 207-216.

 

Shukla, J., D. Straus, D. Randall, Y. Sud and L. Marx, 1981: Winter and summer simulations with the GLAS climate model.  NASA Technical Memo. 83866, pp. 1‑282.

 

Straus, D. M. and J. Shukla, 1981:  Global and local fluctuations of winter and summer simulations with the GLAS climate model. NASA Technical Memo. 83907, pp. 231‑236.

 

Straus, D. M. and J. Shukla, 1981:  Space‑time spectral analysis of the GLAS model. Journal of  Atmospheric Science, 38, 902‑917.

 

1980

 

Shukla, J., Y. Sud and E. Sabatino, 1980: Preliminary results of a January simulation with an improved version of the GLAS model. NASA Technical Memo. 80650, pp. 121‑132.

 

 

1979

 

Halem, M., J. Shukla, Y. Mintz, M. L. Wu, R. Godbole, G. Herman and Y. Sud, 1979: Comparisons of Observed Seasonal Climate Features with a Winter and Summer Numerical Simulation Produced with the GLAS General Circulation Model. GARP Publication Series, 22, 207‑253.

 

Shukla, J., and B. Bangaru, 1979:  Effect of a Pacific SST anomaly on the circulation over North America:  A numerical experiment with the GLAS model.  GARP Publication Series, 22, 501‑518.

 

1978

 

Shukla, J., 1978: CISK‑barotropic‑baroclinic instability and the growth of monsoon depressions.  Journal of Atmospheric Science, 35, 495‑508.

 

1977

 

Charney, J. G. and J. Shukla, 1977: Predictability of Monsoons. Presented at the Joint IUTAM/IUGG Symposium on Monsoon Dynamics (5‑9 December, 1977), New Delhi, India.

 

Shukla, J. 1977:  Barotropic‑baroclinic instability of mean zonal wind during summer monsoon. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 115, 1449‑1462.

 

Shukla, J. and  B. N. Misra, 1977:  Relationships between sea surface temperature and wind speed over the Central Arabia Sea, and monsoon rainfall over India.  Monthly Weather Review, 105, 998‑1002.

 

1976

 

Hahn, D. and J. Shukla, 1976: An apparent relationship between Eurasia snow cover and Indian monsoon rainfall. Journal of  Atmospheric Science, 33, 2461-2463.

 

Shukla, J., 1976:  Reply. Journal of Atmospheric Science, 253‑255.

 

1975

 

Shukla, J., 1975: Effect of Arabian sea‑surface temperature anomaly on Indian summer monsoon: A numerical experiment with GFDL model. Journal of Atmospheric Science, 32, 503‑511.

 

1974

 

Shukla, J. and K. R. Saha, 1974:  Computation of non‑divergent stream functions and irrational velocity potential from the observed winds. Monthly Weather Review, 102, 419‑425.

 

1973

 

Phillips, N. A. and J. Shukla, 1973:  On the strategy of combining coarse and find grid meshes in numerical weather prediction.  Journal of Applied Meteorology, 12, 736‑770.

 

1972

 

Mooley, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1972:  Concurrent association between 700 mb, 5 day mean contour patterns and 5 day rainfall anomaly over India during July. Indian Journal of Meteorology and Geophysics, 23, 29‑34.

 

Shukla, J., 1972:  Barotropic Model, A Review. Indian Journal of Meteorology and Geophysics, 23, 201‑206.

 

1971

 

Shukla, J., 1971:  On the numerical solution of diabatic quasi‑geostrophic omega equations. Indian Journal of Meteorology and Geophysics, 22, 35‑46.

 

Shukla, J. and P. P. Sajnani, 1971: A note on the magnitude of horizontal divergence. Indian Journal of Meteorology and Geophysics, 22, 235‑236.

 

1970

 

Shukla, J. and K. R. Saha, 1970: Application of nondivergent barotropic model to predict flow patterns in the Indian region.  Journal of Met. Soc. of Japan, 48, 405‑410.

 

1969

 

Shukla, J., 1969:  An iterative scheme for diagnostic studies: A proposal. Indian Journal of Meteorology and Geophysics, 20, 119‑122.

 

Shukla, J., 1969:  A numerical experiment on a disturbance in the tropical easterlies.  Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 47, 109‑114.

 

Shukla, J., 1969:  An objective method of quantitative estimation of abnormal pentad rainfall over Ratnagiri during July. Indian Journal of Meteorology and Geophysics, 20, 59‑60.

 

Shukla, J., 1969: A numerical experiment on disturbances in the topical easterlies. Proceedings of the WMO/IUGG Symp. On NWP, Tokyo (26 Nov. – 4 Dec., 1968), pp III – 109, IV – 63, IV – 64.

                                                                                               

1968

 

Shukla, J. and R. Suryanarayana, 1968:  Forecasting five‑day mean contours of 700 mb using empirical influence co‑efficients. Indian Journal of Meteorology and Geophysics, 19, 407‑412.

 

Shukla, J., S. K. Das and S. S. Kutival, 1968:  Forecasting of pentad rainfall anomaly over Allahabad during the month of July.  Scientific Report No. 58, India Meteorological Department.

 

Shukla, J., S. K. Das and A. Sethumadhavan, 1968:  Forecasting pentad rainfall anomaly over coastal Andhra Pradesh in July. Indian Journal of Meteorology and Geophysics, 19, 445‑448.

 

1967

 

Shukla, J., 1967: An objective method of forecasting pentad rainfall anomaly in Konkan coast during July. Indian Journal of Meteorology and Geophysics, 18, 363-366.